This year’s report highlights important threads across the global risk landscape. Intensifying confrontations, both between and within countries, as well as a heightened sense of urgency and emergency around some critical global problemsJohn Drzik, Chairman, Marsh & McLennan Insights
National politics in many countries has evidenced intense divisiveness and ‘pushbacks’, coupled with increasingly fractious international relations. These volatilities will likely persist, challenging cooperation on key priorities.
As economic confrontations between major powers grow, the global economy shows greater signs of a concerted slowdown.
Weak international agreements belie rising investor and popular pressure for action, against a backdrop of a multitude of natural catastrophes and indicators of longer-term disruptions. 2020 is a critical year for nations to accelerate progress towards major emissions reductions and boosting adaption investments.
Many ecosystems are in decline or at risk of distinction. Biodiversity loss poses irreversible consequences to societies, economies, and the health of the planet.
Emerging technology risks can erode social discourse, threaten economic stability, exacerbate geostrategic competition, and pressure national and international security. Getting a better handle on systemic risks will require a significant technology governance refresh at all levels.
Changing societal, environmental, demographic, and technological trends are straining health systems globally. While transformative technology, medicines, and insurance can improve healthcare, they also introduce new risks and trade-offs.
Risk outlook: the world in 2020
The Global Risks Report forecasts a year of increased domestic and international divisions with the added risk of economic slowdown. 78% of survey respondents said they expect “economic confrontations” and “domestic political polarization” to rise in 2020. Global experts also see the risk of extreme heatwaves and destruction of natural ecosystems increasing, as well as a rise in cyber-attacks targeting operations and infrastructure and data/money theft.
Risk outlook: a sharper focus on environmental threats over the next 10 years
Concerns about environmental risks have been rising over the last decade. For the first time in the history of the survey’s 10-year outlook, environmental threats dominate the top five long term risks by likelihood and occupy three of the top five spots by impact.
Continued vigilance is critical
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