Insights

COVID-19 Pandemic Navigator

Editor's note: Oliver Wyman is monitoring the COVID-19 events in real time, and we have compiled resources to help our clients and the industries they serve. Please continue to monitor the Responding To Coronavirus Hub for updates.

Oliver Wyman Presents the Pandemic Navigator

Our quants and healthcare experts developed a COVID-19 model that reveals where containment and suppression efforts are working, including first peaks and post-first-peak trajectories on a regional basis.

The Oliver Wyman COVID-19 Pandemic Navigator forecasts the number of new and cumulative coronavirus cases across nearly 40 countries, incorporating the effectiveness of containment and suppression measures. It also provides insights into how to manage after the peak, as well as the ability to study potential future containment scenarios until a vaccine or a scale treatment solution is in place. The Oliver Wyman COVID-19 Pandemic Navigator provides a quantitative basis on which governments, industry groups, and companies can examine the impact of COVID-19 on business, and consider how to “reopen” responsibly.

How Has Social Distancing Slowed the Spread in Your Region?

Within our model, we’ve developed the OW COVID-19 Transmission Rate, Beta(t), the primary metric we use to monitor how well a COVID-19 outbreak is being contained in a region. It represents the rate at which new cases are being added to existing active cases – which is a strong indicator of how fast the virus is spreading. 

In order to further analyze how this crucial metric responds to various types of containment measure we have correlated it with the Google Community Mobility Index which tracks the extent to which people have changed their mobility patterns in response to the crisis government directives or due to self-imposed changes. Click Social Distancing Effectiveness on the Pandemic Navigator web version to learn more and view our analysis.


Pandemic Navigator at a Glance


Authors and Developers

Digital

  • Laura Brentano, Senior Delivery Specialist, Digital
  • David DesRoches, Director Americas, Digital
  • Becca Gray, Lead Software Engineer, Digital
  • Michael Greig, Senior Designer, Digital
  • Vikram Krishnamachari, Software Engineer, Digital
  • Mike Ross, Specialist, Digital
  • Barrie Wilkinson, Partner and Co-Lead of Digital Transformation EMEA, Digital
  • Alexander Wong, Data Scientist, Digital
  • Erika Yazid, Lead Software Engineer, Digital

Financial Services

  • Ugur Koyluoglu, PhD, Partner and Vice Chairman of Americas, Financial Services
  • John Milliken, Partner, Financial Services
  • Mick Moloney, Partner and Co-Head of Global Insurance, Financial Services
  • James Morgan, Partner, Financial Services and Digital
  • Gokce Ozcan, Partner, Financial Services
  • Will Tsai, Principal, Financial Services
  • Chris Stiefeling, Director, Financial Services and Digital
  • Daniel Wang, Specialist, Financial Services and Digital
  • Michael Zeltkevic, Partner and Head of Americas, Financial Services

Health and Life Sciences

  • Karen Au Yeung, Engagement Manager, Health and Life Sciences
  • Rory Bell, Consultant
  • Bryce Bach, Principal, Health and Life Sciences
  • Santiago Doria, Engagement Manager, Health and Life Sciences
  • Sam Glick, Partner, Health and Life Sciences
  • Bruce Hamory, MD, Partner and Chief Medical Officer, Health and Life Sciences
  • Helen Leis, Partner, Health and Life Sciences
  • Lucy Liu, Principal, Health and Life Sciences
  • Chris Shrader, Partner, Health and Life Sciences