While the active global commercial fleet currently stands at 25,368 aircraft, the next 10 years will see 3.4% net annual growth, increasing the number to 35,501. The fleet is forecast to grow 3.8% annually during the first five years, then slow to 3.0% in the second five years as the rate of deliveries decreases and removals remain high. These dynamics will result in a fleet that is younger and larger in average seating capacity. The new fleet is expected to support RPK growth of nearly 5% as operators improve capacity management with the larger average seating capacity.
By 2027, the average age of the active fleet will have decreased from 11.2 to 9.7 years, a significant reduction. Of more than 20,400 new aircraft deliveries, 50% will replace in-service aircraft, a slight reduction from last year’s forecast of 53%.
The passenger fleet is forecast to grow nearly 10,300 by 2027, while the cargo fleet is forecast to shrink by roughly 140 aircraft. Just over 1% of new deliveries are forecast to be cargo aircraft. Nearly two-thirds of the cargo aircraft introduced over the forecast period will be passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions.
The above analysis is from the 2017-2027 Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast Summary Go To The Report.