Mobility - Staying Ahead of Disruption

It’s a beguiling vision: You wake up and tell your house management system that you need to be in Munich, or Chicago, or Beijing, by two in the afternoon. The house tells your mobility provider, which computes the journey and sends an itinerary to your smart device. At the appointed time, a driverless car rolls up, perhaps with one or two other people already aboard. The car drops all of you at an integrated mobility hub, where you board a 1,200 kmh hyperloop that whisks you to your target city in mere minutes. An autonomous bus waits at the station to take you to your final destination.

This is one vision of mobility in the year 2040. Driven by the fourth industrial revolution, technological convergence, new entrants in the mobility space, and changing travel behaviors, we expect the pace of innovation in passenger transportation to accelerate over the next quarter-century. Disruption to existing business models will be widespread, making some less viable, while others realize new opportunities and gain new strength. Competitive pressures will increase as customer spend and mindshare shift to new providers.

To further understand how people will move around in the future, Oliver Wyman surveyed several hundred transportation executives and experts globally and identified a number of trends that are likely to shape passenger transport over the next 25 years.  These include the rise of integrated mobility providers, the decline of private cars, the mainstreaming of shared mobility, and increased innovation and competition in passenger transport.  The study also examined:

  • Autonomous vehicles and driverless cars

  • Development of smart cities, including car sharing and changes in public transportation

  • Expansion of digital data services to enhance personal transportation

  • New and emerging business models in passenger mobility

  • Infrastructure requirements and investment cycle considerations


Eighty percent of incumbents in passenger transport say they don’t feel well prepared for what’s coming.
Joris D'Inca, Partner and Mobility 2040 lead author


Mobility - Staying Ahead of Disruption