COVID-19 Claims Trends Spotlight

Oliver Wyman Actuarial and Marsh are undertaking an important project to allow timely sharing of COVID-19 related trends and insights based on aggregated data from our clients with significant U.S. Workers’ Compensation, General Liability, and Auto Liability exposure.

The study will produce monthly statistics of impacts of COVID-19 claims and claims implications of the related economic environment. We believe this information will confirm what you may be seeing anecdotally in your own experience. Having this information will enable responsive forecasts of losses during this uncertain time. We know we’re all asking, “what will the impact of this environment be on my total cost of risk?” Oliver Wyman and Marsh want to provide answers as soon as possible, based on a statistically significant volume of data among “like” companies with large retentions and sophisticated claims programs.

The study will include changes in reporting patterns, changes in frequency and severity of claims, shifts in rates of closure – all by industry, geography, and potentially by type of injury and cause.

We hope you will participate in this important study, which we expect to only require a minimal time investment from you, in order to contribute monthly loss and, ideally, exposure data. All data will be strictly anonymized in the published study and allow you the ability to gain credible and timely insights into what impacts this new environment is having on claims experience in your industry and geography.

Simply based on a selection of large companies with sizable claims volume and national exposure based on March 31, 2020 valued data, we found notable impacts on workers’ compensation claims counts in the month of March, the first month to be significantly impacted by Shelter-in-Place orders and significant downturn in U.S. economic activity. In the table below, we compare claims with report and close dates in March 2020, compared to the average of the same in January and February 2020 and to those in March 2019. Reported claim counts dropped substantially in most regions. The number of closed lost-time claim counts appears to have remained relatively stable, apart from the West region in which closed claim counts have increased in March. (This compilation of accounts contains a mix of “essential” and “non-essential” businesses in this environment, so note that future iterations of this study will include industry-breaks.)

This set of insights only represents the “tip of the iceberg.” With your participation in this study, many further insights will become available, including by industry, geography, claim type, nature of injury, duration impacts and many more. Participants will have access to detailed results.

Please send an email to or contact your Oliver Wyman or Marsh representative to discuss participation in the study and for information regarding data requirements.