The Mood Is Good In Europe - But A Crisis May Come Unexpectedly
European economies have recovered from the sovereign debt crisis. GDP growth is at 2.4 percent on average, and several important indicators signal a continued positive business climate for banks and corporates. Consequently, the mood amongst our surveyed companies is generally very good. Even global megatrends, such as digitization and the rise of Asian economies, are seen as opportunities rather than threats. However, experience shows that severe crises always are triggered by unexpected events!
The Banking System Is Still Vulnerable
We believe that besides general risks for an economic downturn cycle, certain megatrends – ongoing digitization or growing nationalism – may create a new crisis for the economy or for individual sectors. In addition, political instability in major states within the European Union has become a more common threat over the past years.
So how likely is a crisis, and when should it be expected? How well is the European banking sector prepared to weather such a crisis? And what is the level of preparedness in the corporate sector, generally?
These questions are addressed in this year’s report which is based on an expert survey across Europe, complemented by Oliver Wyman analyses and Points-of-View.