In the Oliver Wyman report, The Future of Banking, Partner and Head of North American Financial Services, Michael Poulos explores the forces that will shape the U.S. banking industry in the post-crisis era - a period after the peculiar crisis-related features of the financial environment have abated. Six distinct long-term trends are outlined:
- The end of declining interest rates
- Consumer deleveraging
- Increasingly active regulation
- Aging populations
- The end of credit risk-free sovereign borrowers
- Diverging growth rates between developed and emerging markets
In addition, these trends will drive major changes in the industry over the medium term, including: consolidation, particularly in developed markets, to remove excess capacity; innovation of offerings and service models, to restore margins to acceptable levels; and migration of relative profitability from mass-market to affluent customers, and of growth from developed to emerging economies. The Future of Banking examines each of the six major trends in detail and the headline implications for bankers.