Series: Unemployment's Tipping Point and the New Commercial Mix


An overview of mix shift modeling, including varying recovery scenarios, margin impact, and possible future legislation.

Howard Lapsley, Greg Berger, and Natalie Danckers

4 min read

This article was last updated on May 6, 2020.

Editor’s Note: The following articles were originally published as part of an ongoing series offering our strategic advice and expertise on what healthcare industry stakeholders should do in response to the rapidly evolving novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. 

Part 1: Is There a New Normal in Commercial Health Insurance?

We live in unprecedented times where nothing is normal. Times Square is empty. Sports are canceled. Toilet paper has practically become currency. Uncertainty looms. And Wall Street hates uncertainty.

The potential mix shift under various unemployment scenarios may look very different later this year for both small, mid-size, and large employers and for those individuals under different (or no) insurance plans. As lives keep shifting out of the employer segment and more and more people lose their jobs, payers' risks only continue to evolve as the global crisis presses onward. Here are some predictions on what may come next.

Part 2: The Potential New Normal in Insurance Products

"The Corona Effect" has begun, and payers are responding at lightning speed. As we gear up as an industry for what comes next, the product and distribution implications of our “new normal” may eventually defy status quo expectations because of COVID-19's impact. There's a lot to expect and what's next is unknown. In the meantime, we've made ten specific predictions for what may be next around the bend for things like Consumer Directed Health Plans, telemedicine, government regulations, and more. 

Part 3: What a New Member Mix Means for Payers

We're only a few months into the novel coronavirus, yet the impact has been unlike any global crisis most have experienced in their lifetimes. As more stores, businesses, and corporations shutter, the question remains: How will businesses small, medium, and large be impacted? In this article, we specifically look at a few states like Wyoming, Texas, California, and Indiana to help get a more in-depth perspective on how the current COVID-19 landscape has hit the US thus far. And, we provide a brief overview of mix shift modeling, including varying recovery scenarios, margin impact, and possible future legislation.