A version of this article was originally published in Forbes
Every time a plane lands safely, it’s because hundreds of people work tirelessly to ensure it does. Pilots and air traffic controllers are the visible faces of this complex puzzle, but aircraft mechanics are its foundation. They certify that every plane is fit to fly before a single passenger even boards, but as a generation of experienced technicians nears retirement and too few young people move in to replace them, the industry is running out of people willing and qualified to do it.
A shortage of aviation mechanics within the next decade threatens the industry’s ability to expand and modernize its fleet. Based on our projections — as outlined in the Oliver Wyman Risk Journal Volume 7 — demand for mechanics will outstrip supply in the US, with the gap peaking at 9% by 2027. The problem may arrive sooner in Asia, where most of the world’s new aircraft orders are headed. As fleets grow faster than the workforce supporting them, airlines may be forced to keep extra planes in reserve simply to cover for maintenance backlogs and avoid delays.
The shortage is, in part, because of an aging workforce. A record number of mechanics will be eligible to retire by 2027 as baby boomers reach their 60s. In the US, the median age of an aviation mechanic is 51, nine years older than the average age of the American worker.
Why trainees in aviation mechanics are choosing other careers
The generational gap is stark. There are plenty of young workers who could fill these roles, but most are choosing not to. Our projections show that the number of mechanics leaving the workforce will outpace the number coming in for most of the next decade. Much of this comes down to pay. In our survey of airline and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) executives, 51% identified wages and benefits as a major obstacle to recruitment. The Aviation Technician Education Council estimates that 30% of people who complete an aviation maintenance training course end up taking jobs in a different industry altogether. When other sectors pay as well or better, aviation struggles to compete.
Fleet growth is outpacing aircraft maintenance skills
The timing could hardly be worse. Just as the mechanic workforce is shrinking, the global fleet is growing rapidly. Our Fleet Forecast shows airlines worldwide adding more than 10,000 planes by 2027, growing the total fleet by 40% to around 35,500 aircraft. This is driven by purchases of more than 20,000 next-generation planes alongside the retirement of roughly 10,000 older ones.
Asia will bear the brunt of this growth. The region’s fleet is expected to double in size over the next decade, making it the world’s largest, yet it is also the least prepared in terms of available maintenance workers.
The problem is further complicated by the fact that newer planes are harder to maintain. Within 10 years, 58% of the global fleet will consist of aircraft built after 2000, and these are far more technologically sophisticated than their predecessors. Today’s mechanic needs to be as comfortable reading software diagnostics as they are working with physical components. This combination of skills was barely on the radar a generation ago, which raises a difficult question beyond simply having enough mechanics: Do the mechanics available have the right skills for the planes they will be asked to service? A technician trained on older aircraft may not be equipped to service the newest generation of planes, and retraining takes time the industry may not have.
The aviation mechanic shortage threatens safety and reputation
Industry leaders are well aware of what is coming. Our survey of airline and MRO executives identified three technical areas that the next generation of mechanics will need to master: composite material repair and manufacture; data collection and reporting for advanced analytics and predictive maintenance; and the newest avionics and electrical systems.
The survey also found that 64% of executives expect to recruit mechanics over the next three years to grow their workforce, while another 23% expect to hire just to hold their current numbers steady. Strikingly, 72% of those surveyed expect the search for qualified candidates to become significantly harder in the years ahead.
The consequences of getting this wrong go well beyond boardroom balance sheets. A shortage of qualified mechanics means aircraft stay on the ground longer for maintenance checks, leading to delays, cancellations, and pressure on airlines to cut corners. This is not acceptable in an industry where the margin for error is zero. Airlines may also be forced to keep extra planes in reserve purely to cover for maintenance backlogs, which is an expensive and inefficient response to what is ultimately a people problem, not a fleet problem. The financial impact will be real, but so too will the reputational risk for an industry that depends on public trust.
The solutions are not simple. Raising wages and improving career pathways for mechanics would help attract younger workers, but those changes take time and investment to deliver. Aviation training programs need to be expanded and updated to reflect the demands of modern aircraft. Most importantly, the industry needs to start treating its maintenance workforce with the same strategic attention it gives to pilots and engineers.
Read the original piece here
