Getting Ahead Of Emerging Risks: A New Framework

The international risk governance council, whose research is supported by Oliver Wyman's Global Risk Center.

Global disruptions caused by emerging risks in the past decade include events as diverse as the 2003 SARS outbreak, the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean, tainted food imports, the 2008 financial crisis, volcanic eruptions in Iceland, wildfires in Russia, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami, as well as recent Arab Spring events.

Often executives will not allocate substantial resources to identifying and assessing emerging risks because they are seemingly random andunpredictable. This is a mistake. A more careful examination reveals that companies can get ahead of emerging risks if they pay closer attentionto their common drivers.

To assist with this challenge, we recommend that executives consider the following framework of 12 common contributing factors to emerging risks when making strategic decisions.

Getting Ahead Of Emerging Risks: A New Framework