Travel retail poised for growth as passenger traffic rebounds despite US$5 billion in unrealized sales

PARIS, September 30, 2026 ­─ Airline passenger traffic is growing again, but travelers’ spending patterns are shifting across regions, product categories, and generations. Since 2023, passenger traffic has grown at more than double the rate of duty free and travel retail sales, leaving an estimated US$5 billion in unrealized sales compared with the level implied by 2019 sales per traveler, according to the new Global Travel Retail Pulse from Oliver Wyman, a Marsh business (NYSE: MRSH). 

The study draws on a survey of around 4,000 consumers across Germany, France, the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Mainland China, and India, as well as interviews with more than 30 senior industry executives, and finds that retail performance varies widely by region

Asia Pacific, historically the industry’s strongest region, accounts for most of the shortfall, with travel retail sales an estimated US$7.6 billion below levels implied in 2019. Several shifts contribute to the regional decline, including the growth of domestic alternatives such as Hainan duty-free, diminishing price advantages, and evolving consumer behaviors.

Europe, by contrast, recorded a US$3.1 billion revenue surplus. This growth is supported by airports’ investment in retail, the return of duty-free shopping on UK-EU routes following Brexit, and a favorable mix of long-haul travelers. 

The Middle East recorded a US$0.6 billion revenue surplus and continues to lead all regions in sales per passenger, despite temporary disruption to passenger growth from geopolitical events. South America and Africa continue to develop as travel retail markets alongside rising passenger volumes. South America recorded an estimated US$0.2 billion in unrealized sales relative to 2019 sales-per-traveler levels, while Africa generated an estimated US$0.1 billion above that benchmark.

Regional trends are also reshaping category performance. Fragrances and cosmetics are among the industry’s top-performing product categories, yet sales were impacted amid the wider shopping slowdown in Asia Pacific. In other regions, however, sales grew 4.5% and remain an important source of growth for the industry.

Airport retail is changing due to younger travelers’ expectations

Gen Z and Millennials already account for 61% of total airline travel spending, a share expected to approach 80% by 2035, and their buying criteria are diverging from those of older generations. About half of Gen Z travelers cite price as a key buying criterion, compared to 80% of Baby Boomers. The study finds that Gen Z places greater emphasis on buying factors such as product quality, brand credibility, and convenience.

Pierre-Alexandre Koch, Partner at Oliver Wyman, said: “Travelers expect novelty, whether through emerging brands, airport exclusives, locally relevant products or continuously refreshed collections that give them a reason to return. Sampling, demonstrations, immersive experiences and storytelling can all help turn passive browsing into meaningful interaction.”

Younger travelers are also more likely to make a purchase when they discover something new. Overall, 44% of travelers buy immediately after discovering a product in travel retail, and that figure rises to 49% among Gen Z, compared with 35% among Baby Boomers. 

The findings highlight three priorities for travel retailers: understand traveler needs beyond regional averages to meet specific needs; make travel retail a destination for discovery, value, and engagement; use traveler intelligence to sharpen commercial decisions. Moreover, a clear price advantage remains essential to travel retail, with travelers expecting prices to be around 18% lower than domestic retail.

Vincent Barbat, Partner at Oliver Wyman, said: “Passenger growth alone will not define the next decade of travel retail. The opportunity is to understand travelers beyond the average, tailor the proposition to what matters to them in each location and moment and give them compelling reasons to explore and discover. Travel retail has access to a unique and rich set of traveler data. Turning that intelligence into more relevant and dynamic decisions can become a real source of competitive advantage.”

About Marsh 
Marsh (NYSE: MRSH) is a global leader in risk, reinsurance and capital, people and investments, and management consulting, advising clients in 130 countries. With annual revenue of $27 billion and more than 95,000 colleagues, Marsh helps build the confidence to thrive through the power of perspective. For more information, visit corporate.marsh.com, or follow us on LinkedIn and X.