The 2020–2030 Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast report represents a two-decade effort to assess the commercial airline fleet and the associated maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market. It is widely used by aviation executives, including manufacturers, operators, and aftermarket providers, as well as financial stakeholders such as private equity firms and investment banks. Our research for the report focuses on fleet growth, retirements, orders, and conversions by aircraft class, along with trends shaping aftermarket demand, maintenance costs, technology, and labor supply.
The original forecast was published prior to the WHO declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our forecast update has our latest data and thinking around the COVID-19 pandemic impact on the current and future development of the global commercial aviation fleet and the MRO aftermarket. Additionally, our aviation team is integrating the fleet groundings, aircraft retirements, new production rates, and other announcements to ensure updated information is available in a supplemental interactive dashboard.
The dashboard, in Exhibit 3, includes a summary quantification of the updated forecast and the corresponding MRO impact. It is amended as additional changes are announced. (Last update in February 2020).
Slower economic growth and industry risks will shape aviation this decade
The next decade — 2020 to 2030 — will be more challenging for aviation, even as passenger air travel demand continues to break records. The industry will have to contend with a slower pace of economic expansion, especially in historically high-growth nations such as China. In that nation, economic growth was already slipping even before being rocked by a fast-spreading coronavirus that has infected tens of thousands in just a couple of short months and shut down a large portion of the country’s industry and business.
Yet, there are other challenges more likely to have longer-term impacts on the industry. As the decade progresses, increased maintenance costs will remain a consideration for airlines as will potential labor shortages in key areas, increased congestion in the air and at airports, and an existential threat that efforts to abate climate change may limit the industry’s growth in the future.
The grounding of the 737 MAX will also have repercussions in the near-term. Originally expected to account for over a quarter of all global aircraft deliveries in 2020 and 2021, the MAX does not look like it will return to service before the summer and will have sizable regulatory hurdles to scale on its way back.
Global airline fleet will grow by more than 30% by 2030
Even with all these challenges, the outlook for the global fleet and aftermarket continues to indicate growth. By the beginning of 2030, the global fleet should swell to over 39,000 aircraft, an average compound growth rate of 3.4% annually, driven by continued increases in orders and deliveries. Over the next 10 years, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will produce more than 21,000 aircraft, an average of 2,100 annually and more than 30% above production for the previous decade.
Aging aircraft and higher use will increase demand for MRO services
Half of these deliveries will be replacement aircraft, with aircraft retirements expected to accelerate at a rate of 3.5% over the next 10 years. Currently, almost 9% of the global fleet — close to 2,400 aircraft — is over the age of 25 versus just 5% in 2010. This aging fleet will have a positive effect on demand for MRO services, particularly in the first half of the decade. In the second half, MRO demand will become increasingly driven by scheduled maintenance on newer aircraft. Along with a larger fleet, increasing utilization rates will push MRO spend to $130 billion in 2030 from $90 billion in 2020, an average annual growth of 3.7%.
While it’s likely to be a rocky decade — especially in the first couple of years — long-term prospects are for reasonable top-line growth. Rising costs and competition may, however, push some parts of the industry to consider consolidation.
Interactive dashboard provides updated fleet and MRO market insights
Our interactive dashboard provides a deeper view of the results. The tool allows users to examine the size, growth, and share of the global MRO market, with filters by aircraft class and MRO segments to highlight trends and differences across market groupings.
An additional view provides more granular insight into the size of the MRO market, showing size by year and growth by region. It also includes a breakdown of fleet growth through deliveries and retirements, with filters by region and MRO segment to compare performance across geographies.
