The pilot dilemma

The 2019-2020 flight operations brief
By Geoff Murray, Matt Poitras, Daniel Rye, and Jeffrey Green
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Our second Flight Operations Brief report, based on a global survey and extensive interviews with industry leaders, explores emerging trends in flight operations costs, pilot engagement, the pilot pipeline, and increasing pilot gender diversity.

Through 2019, aviation experienced tremendous growth, with 10 consecutive years of industry profitability. The current public health crisis and its economic fallout — alongside structural headwinds such as increased regulatory oversight and concerns about air travel’s environmental impact — have reshaped the outlook for the decade ahead.

Flight operations leaders must now balance the legacy cost structures built during expansion with a more volatile demand environment. Flight operations costs as a share of total operating costs have been rising, with pilot costs increasing faster than both revenue and total costs between 1991 and 2019.

Exhibit 1: Pilot costs rising faster than revenue and total costs, 1991-2019
Indexed, US carriers, stage-length adjusted
Notes: 2019 data through Q3. RASM excludes revenue from codeshare and regional operations. CASM excludes transport costs and fuel/oil. Source: DOT Form 41 P5.2, P6; PlaneStats.com

The report finds that airlines face a structural imbalance between pilot supply and long-term demand, driven by retirements, training bottlenecks, and shifting career expectations among younger pilots.

It also highlights that traditional cost-control levers alone are insufficient; leading carriers are rethinking crew planning, productivity models, and technology enablement to improve efficiency without eroding engagement.

Exhibit 2: Methods used to manage flight operations costs
Percent of survey respondents, selecting all that apply

Airline growth has increased economies of scale, but also operational complexity and pilot supply challenges. Engagement across a large, geographically dispersed workforce remains difficult, particularly as the industry works to improve diversity — women represent just 5.1% of pilots globally.

Our research emphasizes that improving diversity is not only a social imperative but a strategic one, expanding the future talent pool while strengthening culture and retention.

Although the interviews and survey were conducted before COVID-19, the findings remain highly relevant as airlines rebuild and rescale operations. Leaders have a critical opportunity to redefine pilot engagement, reward structures, and career pathways.

Flight Operations Brief, ultimately calls for a “new compact” between airlines and pilots — one that aligns productivity, flexibility, and career development with long-term resilience and sustainable growth.

Originally published in April 2020.

Authors
  • Geoff Murray,
  • Matt Poitras,
  • Daniel Rye, and
  • Jeffrey Green