There has been much discussion on the potential economic recovery paths for China, with various projections on the shape and timing. We believe that in many cases the analysis is too simplistic, as we observe very different recoveries for different sectors. As a result, we will also see very different recovery within different provinces and urban centers in China.
Working together, Oliver Wyman and Silk Road Associates have analyzed various types of geospatial data, coupled with latest macroeconomic indicators we try to peel back the indicators of recovery to develop a view on the aggregate path. This should be an interesting perspective for any business with a presence, supply chain, or customer base in China today.
With China a couple of months ahead of the world, some of these lessons are also interesting for global firms looking to see how the path out of COVID-19 may evolve. Saying that, the similarities only stretch so far: clearly differences in economic structure, approach to lockdowns, and ongoing digital tracking will result in differences.