Asia Regional Strategic Forecast

Date: April 28, 2020


In response to the global crisis caused by COVID-19, governments around the world have introduced various measures to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on their economies. In the short term, some measures are effective and reasonable, but the risk is that it may become part of our life and the following economic uncertainties can have a long-lasting influence on us. However, China shows strong resilience after Covid-19 comes under control in most of the nationwide areas. Peter Reynolds, Partner and Head of Oliver Wyman Greater China was invited to join a panel “Asia Regional Strategic Forecast”, hosted by Economist Corporate Network, sharing his insights and views on China's economy amid the COVID-19. 

We've been looking quite carefully at some of the data that's coming out of China, not just the GDP numbers. We should decompose those relatively encouraging data from a manufacturing perspective.

Key Highlights


  • We have to be conscious of the fact that there was a 2-week delay to all factories being shut down in addition to the Chinese New Year break. Therefore, 17% of the manufacturing window is actually closed, and any attempt to decline in manufacturing is actually not a bad result for us.
  • And if we looked at some of the challenges, it was really around the mobility of people. We observed a lot of Baidu data around people's movement, it is clear that the large number of people returning home for Chinese New Year, and then there is a delay before they start responding to work. However, the government has taken relatively effective measures to try to attract employees, especially those factories that plays a vital role in the supply chain, and we expect a V-shaped recovery in manufacturing.
  • Besides, the shipping data rebounded relatively quickly. If you look at the number of containers imported from mainland China, they stayed at a relatively high level. Therefore, from this aspect, we believe this sort of stock of raw materials required for manufacturing production was relatively robust and stable. There is a great deal of unresolved demand so that the surge in output will meet the problem of excess demand.