Oliver Wyman Releases 2017 – 2027 Fleet & MRO Forecast

Apr 13, 2017

Industry’s Go-To-Outlook for the Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul Market

New York, April 12, 2017 – Oliver Wyman released its 17th annual Fleet & MRO Forecast today.  Providing a 10-year outlook for the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market, the entire report can be viewed here.

The in-depth report focuses on the airline fleet growth and trends, as well as the resulting impact on maintenance costs and volumes. The outlook reveals significant changes facing the industry.

“The MRO industry will need to evolve significantly over the next 10 years to meet changing demand driven by growth, geographic shifts, fleet mix trends, and new technology,” said Tom Cooper, Vice President, Cavok, a division of Oliver Wyman.

Key findings include:

  • The in-service commercial airline fleet is forecast to grow from nearly 25,000 aircraft at the beginning of 2017 to more than 35,000 by 2027. Aircraft deliveries to airlines will total about 20,000 over the period, so retirements of older technology will accelerate to about 10,000 during that time.
  • The accelerated rate of new aircraft deliveries will result in a massive technology shift over the period. By 2027, 58% of the fleet will be new-generation aircraft.
  • Major net fleet growth will occur in Asia, especially China and India, which will become the largest region, nearly doubling in in-service fleet and related MRO demand. By contrast, North America will experience little absolute growth, although there will be a significant upgrading of the fleet over the period. North America will slip to the third-largest region, behind Asia and Europe.
  • The retirement of aircraft will remain brisk. Having fallen out of favor in recent years, small regional jets and narrow-bodies have been the predominant source of aircraft retirements, resulting in a surprisingly young retirement age of about 18 years. However, with many of these smaller-capacity aircraft now purged from the fleet, the industry can expect retirement ages to climb again as retirement selections will naturally revert to older, larger-capacity aircraft.

The report also explores the big data and new-generation aircrafts, the changing fleet mix, and the Used Serviceable Material market.

In addition to the Fleet & MRO Forecast, Oliver Wyman will also announce results from its MRO Survey at the MRO Americas conference on April 25-27 in Orlando.  The survey examines key issues facing the industry including the technical talent shortage, game-changing advancements in technology and adoption rates as well as benefits realization and changes in fleet plan patterns.

Dave Marcontell, GM and Vice President of CAVOK, is a speaker and will present the findings during a conference session titled “MRO Trends and Forecasts.”  Oliver Wyman Partner Chris Spafford and CAVOK Vice President Steve Douglas will moderate panels on asset management and regulatory trends, respectively.  

About the Forecast

Oliver Wyman’s 2017 assessment and 10-year outlook for the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market marks the 17th year of supporting the industry with informed, validated sector-specific data. The forecast is one of the most credible go-to reports for many executives in the aviation industry as well as for those with financial interests in the sector, such as private equity firms, investment banks, and investment analysts.

About Oliver Wyman

Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting. With offices in 50+ cities across nearly 30 countries, Oliver Wyman combines deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and organization transformation. The firm has about 4,500 professionals around the world who help clients optimize their business, improve their operations and risk profile, and accelerate their organizational performance to seize the most attractive opportunities. Oliver Wyman is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies [NYSE: MMC]. For more information, visit www.oliverwyman.com. Follow Oliver Wyman on Twitter @OliverWyman.