// . //  Insights //  How Banks Should Tackle Geopolitical And Economic Risk


We have never had such a stringent bank supervisory model as we are having today

As inflation and interest rates collide banks must focus on their strengths. Explore key strategies needed for banks to survive geopolitical and economic risk.

Watch more from the New Monetary Order Video Series and discover how financial institutions are adapting to the evolving monetary landscape.

We have never had such a stringent bank supervisory model as we are having today. This is, to some extent, understandable because the risks have now elevated. On the other hand, it is almost too much in a way that business is leaving the banking sector, is being pushed into the non-regulated, so-called shadow banking sector.

The risks don't go away. They're still there, but they're no longer in the regulated banking area. They're now in an area which we understand a lot less. Don't think the risks have gone away. They're still there. So you have to think about what is the right balance, what is the right equilibrium for a insurance supervision, for a bank supervision in order to make sure that the risks are captured and well managed.

With regard to the interest rate level in a long horizon, in a long view, this is not a very high interest rate level. We are just used to a long period of low to negative interest rates. Now we are at a normal interest rate level.

If the German treasuries, the 10 year bonds are paying 250 basis points and the inflation rate we are targeting is at 200 basis points, and you do want some basis points for the risks, you are assuming by investing 250 basis points seems very fairly priced. You are not in a position that we are in an unfairly priced interest rate market, but business models have to withstand that.

The problem is not the level of the interest rates, in my belief. The problem is the swiftness, the short period of time which we used in order to see the interest rate hikes in a road. So that was something which was not even in the ECB stress test for banks. In the most problematic scenario there was less of an increased in the ECB stress test, which tells you that this is a really outstanding swiftness in terms of the hikes.

First, your risk management has to be forward-looking and appropriate. Most risk management systems are, but it's always worth a second look without risk management. Also managing risks, which you don't expect to materialize, is very, very important.

Secondly, you have to think what you, where you want to be in the future. Very few institutions can be everything for everybody. And you have to basically concentrate on your strength and make sure that these strengths are working well. Whereas you may not be able to do everything for everybody at the same time. Cannot be everybody's starting.

Third, and also very importantly, diversification becomes more and more important. If you are too concentrated and too focused on one business line, you're lacking the hedges, the internal hedges, which are needed in order to be successful going forward.