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Before COVID-19, the global fleet and the industry at large had been on an unfettered positive trajectory for 10 years. That was particularly true in the second half of the last decade when low jet fuel prices also enhanced profitability. As this decade begins, however, the industry faces more uncertainty than it has for more than 20 years, starting with the disruption wrought by the pandemic. 

In this episode of the Oliver Wyman Velocity Podcast, join Tom Cooper, CAVOK Vice President and Brian Prentice, Partner for a conversation around the implications for the MRO market as we start to see signs of recovery in 2021 and over the next ten years. 

They will also discuss MRO demand, critical market trends and their corresponding implications for airlines as the aviation industry emerges from the COVID-19 crisis and fallout. 

About the Forecast

The 2021-2031 edition of our Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast Commentary represents a more than two-decade commitment to the understanding and assessment of the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market outlook. The commentary is the go to resource of aviation executives — whether a manufacturer, operator, or aftermarket provider, as well as for those with financial interests in the sector through private equity firms and investment banks.

This year's research focuses on the aviation industry’s recovery from COVID-19, subsequent growth and related trends affecting aftermarket demand, maintenance costs, technology, and labor supply after a devastating 2020. The outlook reveals significant challenges the industry faces as it develops and expands its recovery and rebound plans.

An interactive tool also accompanies the report for further exploration of the forecast.

Analytical topics in the commentary include:

  • In-service fleet, retirements, orders, conversions by aircraft class (widebody, narrowbody, regional jet, and turboprop)
  • Global aircraft fleet forecast and regional fleet growth rates including in-service fleet by age
  • MRO market forecast by segment (line, component, engine, airframe) and aircraft platform spend
  • Economic GDP and traffic data (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) by geographic region and specific countries along with utilization cycles
  • COVID-19 impact on passenger and cargo traffic, anticipated recovery, and changing trends
  • Forecast sensitivity analysis based on epidemiological timeline and public health response to COVID-19, traveler sentiment, government restrictions, and macroeconomic recoverys