Life Sciences Can Help Abate Climate-Driven Health Crises
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Climate change is a global health emergency, projected to cause 14.5 million additional deaths and $12.5 trillion in economic losses by 2050. The crises will consist of devastation from weather events intensified by global warming and diseases that are also aggravated by rising temperatures.

But the global economy is not powerless. The World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman have developed an in-depth report titled, "Healthcare In A Changing Climate: Investing In Resilient Solutions," that details how governments and the life sciences sector could work together to abate as much as half of the deadly consequences of climate change.

This report — the second produced by the Forum and Oliver Wyman on climate change's impact on global health — delves into the diseases most likely to be aggravated by global warming, such as malaria, dengue, asthma, heat-related illnesses, hypertension, stunting, and PTSD. It contends that with a $65 billion investment over five to eight years in the development of vaccines, treatments, and technologies, as many as 6.5 million lives could be saved. In addition, $5.8 trillion in global economic losses and significant suffering from illness and disability, in the form of one billion fewer disability-adjusted life years accrued, could be avoided.

Exhibit 1: Unmet needs range across prevention, diagnosis, and treatment
Source: World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis of current literature supplemented through expert interview

The investment would be the first essential component in an international effort that would also rely on public-private partnerships, innovative multilateral financing mechanisms, and a worldwide push to create more climate-resilient health systems. Similar to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, there would need to be enhanced government-industry cooperation that would include a global regulatory alignment around the development of therapies to guarantee the scalability of new drugs and eliminate unnecessary red tape.

Exhibit 2: Health and economic impacts of climate change, potentially preventable by 2050
Cumulative
Source: World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis of current literature supplemented through expert interview

Addressing unmet medical needs with innovative solutions for climate-driven health challenges

The conditions and illnesses exacerbated by higher temperatures will unlikely be novel. It will more likely involve addressing unmet medical needs, especially in less-developed economies where climate change’s earliest blows will be dealt. For instance, in the case of malaria, novel prevention methods, improved diagnostics, and treatments targeting multi-drug-resistant strains could prevent 44% of projected health and economic burdens.

Similarly, advancements in dengue prevention and antiviral treatments could reduce its impacts by 63%, emphasizing the need for effective vaccines and therapies. While both mosquito-borne diseases tend to be concentrated currently in Africa and Asia, the warmer temperatures are expected to extend the range of the mosquitos north to Europe and North America.

Exhibit 3: Critical actions to overcome roadblocks to investment in climate and health innovation
Source: World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis

By focusing on strategic investments, public-private partnerships, and flexible regulatory frameworks, this report outlines essential strategies to mitigate health and economic burdens and alleviate suffering. To explore these insights further, download the full report for a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities ahead.
 

Mitigation Strategies for Reducing Disease Impact on Health and the Economy

Malaria poses a major global health challenge, with around 250 million cases and 610,000 deaths in 2023. It is caused by Plasmodium parasites transmitted by infected female Anopheles mosquitoes, primarily affecting Sub-Saharan Africa.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

Climate change may increase the transmission of malaria and another vector-borne disease dengue, potentially putting 8.4 billion people at risk by the end of the century. By 2050, the spread of malaria alone could cost an additional $1 trillion and result in 409 million disability-adjusted life years lost globally.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Malaria

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent 44% of projected burdens, averting 3.6 million deaths, preventing $450 billion in economic losses, and preventing the loss of 180 million disability-adjusted life years.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Focus areas include developing effective vaccines, enhancing diagnostic tools, and creating new treatments to combat drug resistance.

 

Dengue is a major global health threat, with 4.6 million suspected cases and 2.1 million confirmed cases reported in 2023. Vulnerable populations include young children, the elderly, and pregnant women, who are at higher risk for severe complications.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

By 2050, dengue is projected to cause 66,000 deaths and incur healthcare costs of $105 billion in Asia alone. The global economic cost is expected to reach $149 billion, with 105,000 deaths and 9 million disability-adjusted life years lost. Southeast Asia will face the greatest impact due to extreme heat and public health challenges.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Dengue

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent approximately 63% of projected burdens, saving up to 6 million disability-adjusted life years, preventing $89 billion in economic losses, and averting 66,000 deaths. Enhanced prevention could account for 46% of this impact.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Key unmet needs include developing effective vaccines, improving diagnostic tools, and creating antiviral treatments tailored to high-risk populations.
 

Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) are major global mental health challenges, affecting millions. In 2019, approximately 300 million people suffered from anxiety disorders, with nearly 4% of the global population estimated to have experienced PTSD.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

Climate-related events are expected to worsen the prevalence of GAD and PTSD. By 2050, GAD related to climate stressors could cost $1.4 trillion and result in 378 million disability-adjusted life years lost globally. PTSD from climate events is projected to cost $397 billion and affect 85 million disability-adjusted life years.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing GAD and PTSD

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent approximately 58% of projected burdens, saving up to 220 million disability-adjusted life years for GAD and 51 million disability-adjusted life years for PTSD, while preventing $671 billion and $113 billion in economic losses, respectively. Enhanced prevention could account for 10% of the impact for GAD and 30% for PTSD.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Key areas for improvement include developing preventive pharmacological solutions for GAD, implementing post-trauma

Stunting is a significant global health issue, affecting 148 million children under five in 2022, with 310,000 child deaths linked to it in 2021. It is most prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, which account for about 80% of cases. Consequences include increased susceptibility to infections, reduced cognitive development, and a higher risk of chronic diseases later in life.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

By 2050, climate change is expected to worsen stunting, with projected global costs of $1.8 trillion and 887 million disability-adjusted life years lost. The Mediterranean region and Western/Southern Africa will face the highest economic burdens, with losses of $700 billion and $231 billion, respectively.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Stunting

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent 45% of projected burdens, saving 397 million disability-adjusted life years and preventing $753 billion in economic losses. Enhanced prevention could account for 36% of this impact, highlighting the need for effective vaccines and maternal health interventions.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Key areas for development include vaccines for enteric infections, early detection tools for malnutrition, and tailored educational and psychosocial interventions for vulnerable regions.
 

Hypertension is a major public health concern affecting as many as a third of all adults
worldwide, and high blood pressure is considered by World Health Organization as the world’s leading risk factor for mortality. Hypertension often goes unnoticed but, if left uncontrolled, can lead to damaged blood vessels and organs, including the heart, brain, kidneys, and eyes.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

Saltwater intrusion is projected to contribute to more than 800,000 new hypertension cases by 2050 in vulnerable coastal regions. This is linked to an economic toll on healthcare systems of an estimated $73 billion and an impact of approximately 193 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The impact in Asia is expected to be particularly severe, with projected healthcare costs of $48.1 billion and an estimated burden of 127 million DALYs.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Hypertension

Introducing novel prevention methods, diagnostics, and treatments could prevent approximately 53% of the projected health and economic burdens. These advancements could avert 54,000 deaths, prevent $37 billion in economic losses, including $1 billion in healthcare costs and save up to 103 million DALYs. Improved diagnostics alone could account for 26% of this impact.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Key areas for improvement include identifying genetic and biological risk markers for early intervention, enhancing diagnostic speed and accuracy through innovative monitoring, developing long-acting treatment options, and improving access to care and telehealth capabilities.

 

Heat-related diseases arise when the body cannot regulate its internal temperature. The WHO reported approximately 489,000 heat-related deaths annually from 2000 to 2019, with 47,000 deaths in Europe in 2023, the warmest year on record. Over two billion workers are exposed to high heat episodes each year, with vulnerable groups including infants, children, the elderly, and outdoor workers.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

By 2050, heatwaves are projected to cause nearly 1.6 million deaths globally, with 70% of fatalities in high-risk regions like Southeast Asia. Economic costs, including healthcare, related to heat-related diseases could reach $7.1 trillion, with Southeast Asia accounting for $1.8 trillion. Heatwaves may also result in a loss of 6.5 million disability-adjusted life years globally.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Heat-Related Diseases

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent about 50% of projected impacts, saving 3.2 million disability-adjusted life years, preventing $3.5 trillion in economic losses, and averting 800,000 deaths. Enhanced prevention could account for 30% of this impact.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Developing enhanced prevention strategies, targeted treatments, and digital monitoring tools is essential to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related illnesses.

Asthma affects 260 million people worldwide and contributed to over 460,000 deaths in 2019. Symptoms include wheezing, coughing, and shortness of breath, varying in severity.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

Asthma is increasingly influenced by climate change, particularly due to rising wildfires and allergens. By 2050, North and Central America are expected to incur $4.6 billion in economic impacts, with 400,000 disability-adjusted life years lost. Globally, costs may reach $9.4 billion and 2.1 million disability-adjusted life years.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Asthma

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent approximately 57% of projected burdens, saving 1.2 million disability-adjusted life years and preventing $4.6 billion in economic losses. Enhanced prevention could account for 14% of this impact.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Key needs include innovative preventive strategies, definitive diagnostic tools, and disease-modifying treatments to improve asthma outcomes.
 

Malaria poses a major global health challenge, with around 250 million cases and 610,000 deaths in 2023. It is caused by Plasmodium parasites transmitted by infected female Anopheles mosquitoes, primarily affecting Sub-Saharan Africa.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

Climate change may increase the transmission of malaria and another vector-borne disease dengue, potentially putting 8.4 billion people at risk by the end of the century. By 2050, the spread of malaria alone could cost an additional $1 trillion and result in 409 million disability-adjusted life years lost globally.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Malaria

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent 44% of projected burdens, averting 3.6 million deaths, preventing $450 billion in economic losses, and preventing the loss of 180 million disability-adjusted life years.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Focus areas include developing effective vaccines, enhancing diagnostic tools, and creating new treatments to combat drug resistance.

 

Dengue is a major global health threat, with 4.6 million suspected cases and 2.1 million confirmed cases reported in 2023. Vulnerable populations include young children, the elderly, and pregnant women, who are at higher risk for severe complications.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

By 2050, dengue is projected to cause 66,000 deaths and incur healthcare costs of $105 billion in Asia alone. The global economic cost is expected to reach $149 billion, with 105,000 deaths and 9 million disability-adjusted life years lost. Southeast Asia will face the greatest impact due to extreme heat and public health challenges.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Dengue

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent approximately 63% of projected burdens, saving up to 6 million disability-adjusted life years, preventing $89 billion in economic losses, and averting 66,000 deaths. Enhanced prevention could account for 46% of this impact.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Key unmet needs include developing effective vaccines, improving diagnostic tools, and creating antiviral treatments tailored to high-risk populations.
 

Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) are major global mental health challenges, affecting millions. In 2019, approximately 300 million people suffered from anxiety disorders, with nearly 4% of the global population estimated to have experienced PTSD.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

Climate-related events are expected to worsen the prevalence of GAD and PTSD. By 2050, GAD related to climate stressors could cost $1.4 trillion and result in 378 million disability-adjusted life years lost globally. PTSD from climate events is projected to cost $397 billion and affect 85 million disability-adjusted life years.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing GAD and PTSD

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent approximately 58% of projected burdens, saving up to 220 million disability-adjusted life years for GAD and 51 million disability-adjusted life years for PTSD, while preventing $671 billion and $113 billion in economic losses, respectively. Enhanced prevention could account for 10% of the impact for GAD and 30% for PTSD.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Key areas for improvement include developing preventive pharmacological solutions for GAD, implementing post-trauma

Stunting is a significant global health issue, affecting 148 million children under five in 2022, with 310,000 child deaths linked to it in 2021. It is most prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, which account for about 80% of cases. Consequences include increased susceptibility to infections, reduced cognitive development, and a higher risk of chronic diseases later in life.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

By 2050, climate change is expected to worsen stunting, with projected global costs of $1.8 trillion and 887 million disability-adjusted life years lost. The Mediterranean region and Western/Southern Africa will face the highest economic burdens, with losses of $700 billion and $231 billion, respectively.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Stunting

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent 45% of projected burdens, saving 397 million disability-adjusted life years and preventing $753 billion in economic losses. Enhanced prevention could account for 36% of this impact, highlighting the need for effective vaccines and maternal health interventions.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Key areas for development include vaccines for enteric infections, early detection tools for malnutrition, and tailored educational and psychosocial interventions for vulnerable regions.
 

Hypertension is a major public health concern affecting as many as a third of all adults
worldwide, and high blood pressure is considered by World Health Organization as the world’s leading risk factor for mortality. Hypertension often goes unnoticed but, if left uncontrolled, can lead to damaged blood vessels and organs, including the heart, brain, kidneys, and eyes.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

Saltwater intrusion is projected to contribute to more than 800,000 new hypertension cases by 2050 in vulnerable coastal regions. This is linked to an economic toll on healthcare systems of an estimated $73 billion and an impact of approximately 193 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The impact in Asia is expected to be particularly severe, with projected healthcare costs of $48.1 billion and an estimated burden of 127 million DALYs.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Hypertension

Introducing novel prevention methods, diagnostics, and treatments could prevent approximately 53% of the projected health and economic burdens. These advancements could avert 54,000 deaths, prevent $37 billion in economic losses, including $1 billion in healthcare costs and save up to 103 million DALYs. Improved diagnostics alone could account for 26% of this impact.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Key areas for improvement include identifying genetic and biological risk markers for early intervention, enhancing diagnostic speed and accuracy through innovative monitoring, developing long-acting treatment options, and improving access to care and telehealth capabilities.

 

Heat-related diseases arise when the body cannot regulate its internal temperature. The WHO reported approximately 489,000 heat-related deaths annually from 2000 to 2019, with 47,000 deaths in Europe in 2023, the warmest year on record. Over two billion workers are exposed to high heat episodes each year, with vulnerable groups including infants, children, the elderly, and outdoor workers.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

By 2050, heatwaves are projected to cause nearly 1.6 million deaths globally, with 70% of fatalities in high-risk regions like Southeast Asia. Economic costs, including healthcare, related to heat-related diseases could reach $7.1 trillion, with Southeast Asia accounting for $1.8 trillion. Heatwaves may also result in a loss of 6.5 million disability-adjusted life years globally.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Heat-Related Diseases

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent about 50% of projected impacts, saving 3.2 million disability-adjusted life years, preventing $3.5 trillion in economic losses, and averting 800,000 deaths. Enhanced prevention could account for 30% of this impact.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Developing enhanced prevention strategies, targeted treatments, and digital monitoring tools is essential to protect vulnerable populations from heat-related illnesses.

Asthma affects 260 million people worldwide and contributed to over 460,000 deaths in 2019. Symptoms include wheezing, coughing, and shortness of breath, varying in severity.

 

Projected Impact by 2050

Asthma is increasingly influenced by climate change, particularly due to rising wildfires and allergens. By 2050, North and Central America are expected to incur $4.6 billion in economic impacts, with 400,000 disability-adjusted life years lost. Globally, costs may reach $9.4 billion and 2.1 million disability-adjusted life years.

 

Health and Economic Benefits of Addressing Asthma

Addressing unmet medical needs could prevent approximately 57% of projected burdens, saving 1.2 million disability-adjusted life years and preventing $4.6 billion in economic losses. Enhanced prevention could account for 14% of this impact.

 

Key Areas for Improvement

Key needs include innovative preventive strategies, definitive diagnostic tools, and disease-modifying treatments to improve asthma outcomes.
 

Deep dives into these diseases are available in an Annex, published separately by Oliver Wyman. Fill in the contact form here.