Actuaries at Oliver Wyman used our Health Reform Microsimulation model to make projections about what the market would look like under the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association proposal. We conclude that the proposal would have the following effects on affordability, enrollment, and premiums:
- It would improve the affordability of coverage. Under current law, we estimate that a 45-year-old with an income of $25,520 (200% of FPL) would expect to pay about $3,500 for premiums and cost sharing in the ACA market. Under the BCBSA proposal, that same individual would expect to pay approximately $1,700 of their income for premiums and cost sharing.
- It would reduce the cost of coverage, thereby increasing access to affordable coverage and reducing the number of uninsured by 9 million people.
- The reinsurance program and a healthier risk pool would result in a 19% reduction in premium rates, before premium tax credits, in the individual, ACA market.
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