In its second decade, our annual MRO survey remains an industry standard, capturing the attitudes and strategies of aviation executives across the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) sector. The 2019 survey focused on three top-of-mind issues for the aviation aftermarket: the potential for an economic downturn, the continuing expansion of OEMs in the aftermarket, and the anticipated impact of digital innovation.
After a decade of uninterrupted industry growth, several global headwinds are raising questions about whether an economic contraction is approaching. The Global Fleet and MRO Forecast for 2019–2029 continues to project a strong decade ahead, with limited downside driven by regulatory maintenance requirements across the life of the aircraft. Survey respondents reflect that outlook. Even as geopolitical tension, rising interest rates, and fluctuating fuel prices create uncertainty, three-quarters believe their organizations are prepared to manage a downturn, while confidence in the broader industry remains lower.
More than 90% of aviation aftermarket executives expect growth over five years
Survey results show sustained confidence in the near term. More than 90% of respondents expect the aftermarket to grow over the next five years, and 70% anticipate growth above 5%. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are the most optimistic, with nearly half projecting expansion above 10%.
At the same time, the possibility of a downturn remains a central consideration. Aviation’s sensitivity to global shocks continues to shape planning. Three-quarters of survey respondents believe their organizations are ready to ride out rough weather yet were less bullish on the preparations across the broader aviation industry.
This disconnect may suggest that there is an opportunity for more formal planning and preparation for the inevitable downturn in a traditionally cyclical industry. In a downturn, many companies say they would postpone expansion, renegotiate supplier agreements, and focus on operational efficiency. Airlines would also act directly on their fleets, including parking older aircraft or parting them out to generate used serviceable material. This shift could increase supply in a segment that has faced constraints in recent years.
Even under a more severe scenario combining higher fuel costs, rising interest rates, and lower passenger demand, the MRO market is expected to continue growing, though at a slower pace. Maintenance demand remains anchored by regulatory schedules that operate independently of flight activity levels.
We also ask industry participants every year about potential top market disruptors, and once again OEM expansion topped the list, with airframe OEMs expected to utilize all available channels to push further into the MRO market. At the same time, airlines are concerned that they have balanced and competitive options for MRO, which may lead them to develop new suppliers or redevelop some of their own technical capabilities to counter the OEM surge. Some signs of airlines further investing in their captive MRO services or bringing work back in house are popping up.
Airframe OEMs are expanding into MRO through acquisitions and joint ventures
We also ask industry participants every year about potential top market disruptors, and once again OEM expansion topped the list, with airframe OEMs expected to utilize all available channels to push further into the MRO market through acquisitions, joint ventures, and internal capability development. Nearly 89% of respondents expect airframe OEMs to expand through partnerships or in-house capabilities, while 79% anticipate growth through acquisitions. This reflects a broader pattern of consolidation developed over the past decade. Larger players have grown through strategic deals and technology-sharing arrangements. The focus is now shifting toward smaller Tier 2 and Tier 3 companies, where opportunities for expansion remain more accessible.
Airlines are responding by maintaining competitive balance. Many are developing new supplier relationships or reinvesting in their own technical operations. Some are bringing work back in-house to retain control over costs, reliability, and operational data. There is also strong interest in expanding the use of alternative parts, including used serviceable material and parts manufacturer approval components.
Digital innovation is advancing, but cost and performance drive MRO selection
Digital capabilities are advancing across the aviation aftermarket, though their influence remains limited in 2019. Our survey identifies aircraft health management and predictive maintenance as the most developed technologies, with two-thirds of respondents highlighting progress in these areas. These tools are expected to deliver the greatest benefits over the next three years, particularly for operators managing more complex fleets.
Airlines continue to prioritize cost, turnaround time, and service quality when selecting MRO providers. Eighty-five percent of respondents say a strong digital offering is not a deciding factor, and nearly half describe current solutions as scattered innovations that have yet to demonstrate clear value. There is also ongoing debate over who should provide these services. OEMs often see themselves as best positioned, while operators and MRO providers express caution, reflecting concerns about data ownership and incentives. This divide continues to shape how digital capabilities are developed and adopted.
Across these themes, the 2019 survey captures an industry that continues to grow while adapting to new pressures. The next decade will depend on how effectively companies prepare for economic cycles, respond to shifting competitive dynamics, and translate digital innovation into measurable performance gains.
