MRO Survey 2016

The latest aircraft designs now entering fleets are equipped with technologies that can deliver unprecedented collection and transmission of data at the system and part level.

We estimate that the global fleet could generate 98 million terabytes of data by 2026. This surge of data, in the hands of a new breed of data scientists and innovative management teams, could lead to major changes in how modern aircraft are cared for and perform.

In Oliver Wyman’s 2016 MRO Survey, we examine a variety of technology and innovation themes, including how operators, MROs, and OEMs are adopting, utilizing, and investing in big data capabilities – particularly relating to aircraft health monitoring (AHM) and predictive maintenance (PM) systems.

According to survey respondents, big data in commercial aviation already has moved past the early adopter phase for some applications, with a majority reporting implementation of AHM and PM on at least a modest scale. We also discovered that airlines and MROs are beginning to see the first tangible impacts of these initiatives, but the survey does not support the notion of an imminent big data revolution in aviation MRO.

Several obstacles like legacy IT system upgrades, lack of a common data standard, data ownership rights, and still unproven business cases are moderating the pace and depth of adoption.


MRO Survey 2016

Chris Spafford & Dave Marcontell Answers 3 Questions
  • 1What changes can we expect with the surge of data from fleets with new technologies?

    1) Airlines will beef up their IT architecture to capture, store, and synthesize the massive amount of data coming.
    2) They will also develop algorithms, or work with others who have, to mine data and identify trends for operational improvement.
    3) Over time, airlines will more increasingly and regularly use probability-driven criteria for making maintenance decisions.

  • 2What are some applications of big data in the aviation maintenance space and how quickly are they being adopted?

    Two applications that are gaining traction include: aircraft health monitoring (AHM) and predictive maintenance (PM). For AHM, our survey shows a more pervasive adoption with 56% utilizing AHM in some portion of their fleet. Engine condition monitoring (ECM) is a long-established OEM offering in this space. Meanwhile, PM is more nascent. Only 19% of our respondents said they use it on all their fleets and 25% for some aircraft.

  • 3What could accelerate the current adoption pace of these applications?

    Creating incentives for OEMs or service providers to lower costs or dramatically improve airline operational performance through demonstrated use of big data for improved decision making.

2016-2026 Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast

presented by Dave Marcontell, VP CAVOK

Dave Marcontell spoke about fleet trends and their implications for the MRO Market in the Trends and Forecast plenary session at MRO Americas. His presentation covers a variety of topics including industry economic trends and scenarios around GDP growth, interest rate changes, oil price fluctuations, and traffic growth on the 10-year fleet forecast and much more. See below for other topics covered in his presentation.

  • Baseline forecasted fleet growth rate over next 10 years
  • Scenarios of GDP growth, interest rate changes, oil price fluctuations and traffic growth on the fleet forecast
  • Legacy versus next generation aircraft classes
  • Technology and advanced analytics
  • Aircraft retirements and changes in re-fleeting geographically
  • Serviceable materials
  • Points of competitive differentiation and advantage for MROs

Winds of Change: 2016-2026 Global Fleet & MRO Market Forecast

MRO Survey 2016


Global In-Service Fleet Forecast Tool

Source: betterInsight™ by Oliver Wyman

Short term fluctuations in economic indicators and fuel prices have historically had little to no effect on short-term operator fleeting decisions. However, depending on one’s long-term views of criteria such as economic (in)stability, passenger growth, fuel price sustainability, and/or interest rates fluctuate, we would expect to see operators’ fleeting decisions altered.  Based on our Fleet and MRO Forecast and assumptions on the expected outcomes of each, the likely case has the commercial in-service fleet reaching between 32,000 and 36,000 aircraft by 2026.

To experiment with your own assumptions, we’ve simplified our overall forecast across a few variables to illustrate potential impact on the longer range fleet forecast. It does not represent the full set of variables, nor the inter-relationship of various assumptions in our full forecast model. For more information about our forecast, please go to