2030 Projections for Inpatient Bed Supply


The current supply of inpatient beds is far higher than what we need now, or even what we'll need a decade from now.

Bryce Bach, Santiago Doria, Minoo Javanmardian, PhD, and Tammy Tomczyk

3 min read

Editor's Note: The following summary is from "Healthcare Supply Will Be Right-Sized," originally published in the Oliver Wyman Health Innovation Journal Volume 4.

The healthcare system's supply versus demand is unbalanced. The pandemic has exposed an industry paradox: The US had plenty of inpatient beds – but it didn’t have the right inpatient beds. According to new Oliver Wyman analysis, if we integrate utilization patterns and don't build more beds, we'll still have 1.6 times the number of inpatient beds than what's needed a decade from now.

In the below analysis, we leveraged the utilization profile of top metropolitan statistical areas according to value-based-care penetration, age-sex adjusting utilization for every US county’s projected population ten years from now. In summary, the delta between projected need and the current supply is driven by demand-side and supply factors. We assumed 80 percent utilization for urban counties and 70 percent for rural counties. To get a better sense of what the future holds, explore the interactive design below, and read our full perspective. 

Projected Over-and-Under-Supply of IP Beds in 2030:

Source: Oliver Wyman analysis, MarketScan, CMS 5% National Sample, US Census, American Community Survey