Financial Crisis of 2015

Back to the future

In 2011 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Oliver Wyman published The Financial Crisis of 2015: An Avoidable History. This report contained a six-page “virtual history,” which described a potential crisis scenario that might unfold over the coming four years. The report was viewed as contrarian. Many voices at the 2011 Davos event were already claiming that the financial crisis was behind us and that the sovereign debt crisis would be confined to a small number of peripheral countries.

Our report called on banks to make more extensive use of scenario analysis and stress testing in addition to statistical modeling techniques – the scenario in our report being one such scenario they should consider.

We are now more than halfway through the scenario’s projected period, so we thought it might be interesting to compare it with actual events and to update it, given what we know today.

Financial Crisis of 2015